NCAA Regionals

NCAA Bracket Breakdown

NCAA Bracket Breakdown

2016's NCAA bracket may be the toughest postseason lineup yet. Anybody can be beat; nobody is safe. Before we dive into the match-ups, let’s attempt to demy

May 16, 2016 by Chez Sievers
NCAA Bracket Breakdown
2016's NCAA bracket may be the toughest postseason lineup yet. Anybody can be beat; nobody is safe.

Before we dive into the match-ups, let’s attempt to demystify how RPI is calculated.

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What is RPI?

RPI stands for Ratings Percentage Index.

How RPI is calculated?

To calculate it, divide the sum of all opponents' win percentages—excluding those games played against the team for which RPI is being calculated—by the total number of opponents. Opponents' opponents' win percentage is the average winning percentage of a team's opponents' opponents.

RPI Formula
RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

Example: No. 1 Florida — (.914 * 0.25) + (.833 * 0.50) + (OOWP? * 0.25)

How does one find the OOWP? I’m imagining someone like Dobby who works in the basement of the NCAA headquarters who calculates the OOWP using reams of paper to calculate this mess.



Who got the easiest region?

The first round goes to James Madison. How on earth did they not draw one single PAC 12 or SEC team? Longwood, North Carolina, and Princeton?

Should they make it to the next round (which they should), LSU will be waiting in the wings to punch their ticket to Oklahoma City.

I pick LSU to win Regionals and Supers. Why? James Madison does not have enough offense to overpower Carley Hoover, Ali Walljasper, and Sydney Smith. The Colonial Conference has not prepared them to do battle against LSU.

In the last two months, LSU has played against nine top-15 opponents. Meanwhile, James Madison has seen three top-25 opponents in the last two months.

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Who got the toughest region?

Brigham Young, Nebraska, and Louisville all travel to Columbia, Missouri, for the No. 15 Missouri region. Nebraska and Louisville have been bubble teams all year.

All three visiting teams have upset potential. Nebraska’s most notable wins were against No. 2 Michigan, No. 7 James Madison, Northwestern, and No. 4 Oregon. Louisville’s most notable wins came against Notre Dame and Florida State. Brigham Young has beaten Arizona, Fresno State, and Texas.

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Who is most likely to be upset at their own region?

UL-Lafayette received a tough draw. The Rajun Cajuns have their hands full with No.17 Texas A&M, No. 25 Texas, and Boston University in their region. Texas A&M won the series against No. 4 Auburn and lost a very close game against LSU.

Lexie Elkins has returned to the field and in the lineup for the Cajuns. But is she ready? Last weekend was her first back since breaking her thumb. Lafayette still sports an onslaught of hitters in their lineup who manufacture runs like it’s their business. They average the most home runs per game, and are third in the country in scoring.

Why does Texas A&M have the upside? The huge question will be, can Louisiana Lafayette’s pitching take them to OKC? Alex Stewart has a tendency to pitch illegally. In the Sun Belt Tournament, Stewart received at least five illegal-pitch calls in two games. Their ace will run into trouble this weekend if she can't keep contact with the ground.

What does this year's bracket say about the state of college softball?

The SEC has become a breeding ground for postseason teams. 11 out of the 13 teams in the SEC have made it to the tournament. For the SEC haters, say what you want. The SEC is legit. They are the definitive conference for softball.

I do believe Washington should be in the top 10. However, the PAC will need to undergo some serious reconstruction over the next several years to catch up to the SEC.

Softball across the country has exploded. Nearly every region has upset potential.

Who has the best chance of beating No. 1 Florida at the WCWS?

Auburn. The Tigers are one of the only teams in the country to beat Florida twice this year. They managed to take two weeks of disastrous play and turn that around at the SEC Tournament with back-to-back championships. In less than a week, Auburn beat Alabama, Florida, and LSU.